![]() ![]() How To Use The Hype Cycle Theory When we are aware of the hype cycle, we can adjust our reaction to technologies to avoid being swept up in the typical irrational momentum and over-reaction described by the curve. When people finally understand what the technology can and can’t do, the right group of users engages and interest is optimized and levels off at an appropriate degree where no one is disappointed. Finally, society reaches the plateau of productivity. The adopters refine their understanding of potential use cases and strengths and weaknesses of the product, and gradually more people start to join them. They discover problems with the product and the owners work to resolve the issues. But some early adopters press on, climbing the slope of enlightenment. Expectations are not met, fortunes can be lost, and disappointment and abandonment of the technology is widespread. Limitations and caveats that were not noticed at first become apparent. Development of a full-featured product often takes longer than expected. The trough of disillusionment waits just behind the peak expectations. This can cause bubbles, as we saw with early web companies. It is difficult at this stage to present rigorous analysis, but it is easy to create excitement, and excitement entertains and engages readers, so the trend in coverage is often quite enthusiastic. We swiftly proceed from first notice to the peak of inflated expectations. The hype cycle begins when the new idea arrives. But the trigger is not a need that inspires innovation the trigger refers to the first public demonstration or publicizing of a new idea. Fenn’s original theory called this step the technology trigger. The innovation trigger stage has a rather misleading name. The five stages are: the innovation trigger, the meteoric irrational rise to the peak of inflated expectation, the precipitous drop into the trough of disillusionment, the gradual slope of enlightenment, and finally the stable plateau of productivity. The progress of adoption can be represented as a curve where the y axis is expectations and the x-axis is time. A Five-Stage Process of Technology Adoption We can consider the hype cycle as a five-stage process. We will wisely temper our excitement about something new and, having no false expectations, we won’t under-estimate the value of something at the point where other people are reeling with disillusion. When we are aware of the hype cycle, we can avoid going along with the crowd. Then there will be a gradual recovery and progress towards a much more satisfying engagement with the technology. People will be disappointed that their unrealistic expectations were not met. This will be followed by disillusionment. The Gartner Hype Cycle Technology Adoption Curve What does Gartner’s hype cycle predict? In a nutshell, most new technologies will be met with what you could call premature enthusiasm. Let’s jump into the details and see how you can apply the theory. While the hypothesis might not describe the path of every technology, it often seems to fit. Research and advisory company Gartner’s Jackie Fenn put quite a feather in their cap back in 1995 when he came up with a general hypothesis about the typical technology adoption curve that came to be called the Gartner Hype Cycle. ![]() ![]() This week, we are talking about tech adoption insights. Welcome once again to Viral Octopus Magazine’s Knowledge series. ![]()
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